Nõmme United 2–2 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

Nõmme United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

K-Järve JK Järve

L. Aigro 87'

A. Tiits 15'

M. Orlov 81'

V. Velikanov 68'

5/28/2022

Esiliiga A · Round 16Männiku staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nõmme United73%

×Draw15%

K-Järve JK Järve11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nõmme UnitedExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.02

Nõmme United

2.78

K-Järve JK Järve

1.02

Nõmme United creates 173% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 65 away

2.61

creates per match

0.98

1.05

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Nõmme United

2.61

K-Järve JK Järve

0.98

allows per match

Nõmme United

1.05

K-Järve JK Järve

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw

89%

Nõmme United or K-Järve JK Järve

85%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

27%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+

53%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals

94%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

76%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

51%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

64%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

27%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

87%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.61 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.78

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.98 + Nõmme United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Nõmme United scores more

73%

level

15%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

11%

Nõmme United at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Tiits

46'

E. Õunapuu← S. Kubensky

47'

G. Mitsuk

63'

T. Hanvere← A. Filatov

65'

R. Ernits

68'

V. Velikanov

71'

M. Ambur← R. Ernits

71'

R. Bazkov← V. Velikanov

78'

A. Tiits

78'

M. Miškov← M. Jakovlev

81'

81'

87'

89'

90'

90+2'

90+4'

Nõmme

K-Järve

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tiits

▼

Ernits

Manager: M. Klasen

46'▲E. Õunapuu←▼S. Kubensky

63'▲T. Hanvere←▼A. Filatov

71'▲M. Ambur←▼R. Ernits

81'▲J. Lauter←▼A. Tiits

Nõmme United substitutes

ÕunapuuHanvereAmburLauterKruse

Manager: E. Šteinberg

71'▲R. Bazkov←▼V. Velikanov

78'▲M. Miškov←▼M. Jakovlev

90+4'▲A. Sutškov←▼M. Orlov

K-Järve JK Järve substitutes

BazkovMiškovSutškovBarkanovCherkasov

Match Recap: Nõmme United vs K-Järve JK Järve

Nõmme United and K-Järve JK Järve drew 2-2 in Esiliiga A on May 28, 2022.

Goals: A. Tiits (15'), V. Velikanov (68'), M. Orlov (81'), L. Aigro (87').

The match was played at Männiku staadion in Tallinn.

Nõmme United vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nõmme United vs K-Järve JK Järve