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Nõmme United vs FS Jelgava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
2/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nõmme United28%
×Draw19%
FS Jelgava53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme United
1.80
FS Jelgava
2.50

FS Jelgava creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nõmme United
2.00
FS Jelgava
1.80

allows per match

Nõmme United
3.20
FS Jelgava
1.60

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par
FS Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

FS Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw
47%
Nõmme United or FS Jelgava
81%
Draw or FS Jelgava
72%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+
14%
FS Jelgava wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals
83%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
54%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
27%
FS Jelgava 1+ goals
92%
FS Jelgava 2+ goals
71%
FS Jelgava 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)
35%
FS Jelgava (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

FS Jelgava away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.00 + FS Jelgava defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

FS Jelgava attack 1.80 + Nõmme United defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nõmme United scores more
28%
level
19%
FS Jelgava scores more
53%

FS Jelgava at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FS Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Nõmme United 1–4 FS Jelgava

FS Jelgava beat Nõmme United 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2026.