Nõmme United II 4–2 Läänemaa Haapsalu

Nõmme United II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Läänemaa Haapsalu

8/18/2025

Esiliiga B · Round 24Männiku staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nõmme United II72%

×Draw15%

Läänemaa Haapsalu14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nõmme United IIExpected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

1.35

Nõmme United II

3.16

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.35

Nõmme United II creates 134% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

2.67

creates per match

1.27

1.44

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Nõmme United II

2.67

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.27

allows per match

Nõmme United II

1.44

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nõmme United II+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United II ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Nõmme United II or draw

86%

Nõmme United II or Läänemaa Haapsalu

85%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

28%

Winning margin

Nõmme United II wins by 2+

53%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nõmme United II 1+ goals

96%

Nõmme United II 2+ goals

82%

Nõmme United II 3+ goals

59%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

74%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

39%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United II (draw refunded)

84%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United II attack 2.67 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.16

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Nõmme United II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nõmme United II scores more

72%

level

15%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

14%

Nõmme United II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Nõmme United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff