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Nõmme Kalju II vs Legion — Esiliiga B 2026

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
FT
0 – 1
Legion
Legion
5/11/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 10Hiiu staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nõmme Kalju II66%
×Draw16%
Legion17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme Kalju II
2.96
Legion
1.50

Nõmme Kalju II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 46 away

creates per match

Nõmme Kalju II
3.17
Legion
1.72

allows per match

Nõmme Kalju II
1.28
Legion
2.74

finishing

Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme Kalju II ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Nõmme Kalju II or draw
83%
Nõmme Kalju II or Legion
84%
Draw or Legion
34%

Winning margin

Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+
46%
Legion wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals
95%
Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals
79%
Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals
55%
Legion 1+ goals
78%
Legion 2+ goals
44%
Legion 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)
79%
Legion (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme Kalju II at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Legion away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme Kalju II attack 3.17 + Legion defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.96

Legion attack 1.72 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nõmme Kalju II scores more
66%
level
16%
Legion scores more
17%

Nõmme Kalju II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nõmme Kalju II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Nõmme Kalju II 0–1 Legion

Legion beat Nõmme Kalju II 1-0 in Esiliiga B on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Hiiu staadion in Tallinn.