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Nõmme Kalju II vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
10/21/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 32Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nõmme Kalju II66%
×Draw17%
Kuressaare II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme Kalju II
2.87
Kuressaare II
1.46

Nõmme Kalju II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Nõmme Kalju II
3.17
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

Nõmme Kalju II
1.28
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme Kalju II ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Nõmme Kalju II or draw
82%
Nõmme Kalju II or Kuressaare II
83%
Draw or Kuressaare II
34%

Winning margin

Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+
46%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals
94%
Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals
77%
Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals
53%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
77%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
43%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)
79%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme Kalju II at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme Kalju II attack 3.17 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.87

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nõmme Kalju II scores more
66%
level
17%
Kuressaare II scores more
18%

Nõmme Kalju II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nõmme Kalju II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nõmme Kalju II vs Kuressaare II

Kuressaare II beat Nõmme Kalju II 3-2 in Esiliiga B on October 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.