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Nola 1925 vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nola 1925
Nola 1925
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
9/11/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Campo Sportivo Paolo Borsellino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nola 192534%
×Draw28%
Vis Artena38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nola 1925
1.13
Vis Artena
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Nola 1925
1.06
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Nola 1925
1.35
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Nola 1925+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nola 1925 ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nola 1925 or draw
62%
Nola 1925 or Vis Artena
72%
Draw or Vis Artena
66%

Winning margin

Nola 1925 wins by 2+
14%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nola 1925 1+ goals
68%
Nola 1925 2+ goals
31%
Nola 1925 3+ goals
11%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
70%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
34%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)
47%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nola 1925 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nola 1925 attack 1.06 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Nola 1925 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nola 1925 scores more
34%
level
28%
Vis Artena scores more
38%

Vis Artena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nola 1925 vs Vis Artena

Nola 1925 beat Vis Artena 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Paolo Borsellino in Volla.