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Nola 1925 vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nola 1925
Nola 1925
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
12/11/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Stadio Sporting Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nola 192541%
×Draw27%
Real Monterotondo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nola 1925
1.33
Real Monterotondo
1.16

Nola 1925 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nola 1925
1.06
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Nola 1925
1.35
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Nola 1925+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nola 1925 ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nola 1925 or draw
68%
Nola 1925 or Real Monterotondo
73%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
59%

Winning margin

Nola 1925 wins by 2+
19%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nola 1925 1+ goals
74%
Nola 1925 2+ goals
38%
Nola 1925 3+ goals
15%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
69%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
32%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)
56%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nola 1925 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nola 1925 attack 1.06 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Nola 1925 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nola 1925 scores more
41%
level
27%
Real Monterotondo scores more
32%

Nola 1925 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nola 1925 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Nola 1925 2–4 Real Monterotondo

Real Monterotondo beat Nola 1925 4-2 in Serie D - Girone G on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Sporting Club in Nola.