Nola 1925 2–2 Paganese: Result & Stats

Nola 1925

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Paganese

11/13/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 11Stadio Sporting Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nola 192530%

×Draw27%

Paganese42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nola 1925Expected goals in this matchPaganese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.35

Nola 1925

1.10

Paganese

1.35

Paganese creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.06

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Nola 1925

1.06

Paganese

1.35

allows per match

Nola 1925

1.35

Paganese

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nola 1925+0.00on par

Paganese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nola 1925 ↓

Paganese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nola 1925 or draw

58%

Nola 1925 or Paganese

73%

Draw or Paganese

70%

Winning margin

Nola 1925 wins by 2+

12%

Paganese wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nola 1925 1+ goals

67%

Nola 1925 2+ goals

30%

Nola 1925 3+ goals

10%

Paganese 1+ goals

74%

Paganese 2+ goals

39%

Paganese 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)

42%

Paganese (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nola 1925 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Paganese away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nola 1925 attack 1.06 + Paganese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Paganese attack 1.35 + Nola 1925 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nola 1925 scores more

30%

level

27%

Paganese scores more

42%

Paganese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff