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Nola 1925 vs Casertana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nola 1925
Nola 1925
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Casertana
Casertana
1/8/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Sporting Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nola 192533%
×Draw26%
Casertana41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nola 1925
1.21
Casertana
1.38

Casertana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nola 1925
1.06
Casertana
1.41

allows per match

Nola 1925
1.35
Casertana
1.35

finishing

Nola 1925+0.00on par
Casertana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nola 1925 ↓

Casertana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nola 1925 or draw
59%
Nola 1925 or Casertana
74%
Draw or Casertana
67%

Winning margin

Nola 1925 wins by 2+
14%
Casertana wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nola 1925 1+ goals
70%
Nola 1925 2+ goals
34%
Nola 1925 3+ goals
12%
Casertana 1+ goals
75%
Casertana 2+ goals
40%
Casertana 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)
45%
Casertana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nola 1925 at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Casertana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nola 1925 attack 1.06 + Casertana defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Casertana attack 1.41 + Nola 1925 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nola 1925 scores more
33%
level
26%
Casertana scores more
41%

Casertana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Casertana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nola 1925 vs Casertana

Casertana beat Nola 1925 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Sporting Club in Nola.