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Nojima Stella W vs Omiya Ardija Ventus W — League #854 2026

Nojima Stella W
Nojima Stella W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Omiya Ardija Ventus W
Omiya Ardija Ventus W
9/22/2024League #854League #854 · Round 2Sagamihara Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nojima Stella W22%
×Draw30%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nojima Stella W
0.75
Omiya Ardija Ventus W
1.25

Omiya Ardija Ventus W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nojima Stella W
0.50
Omiya Ardija Ventus W
1.00

allows per match

Nojima Stella W
1.50
Omiya Ardija Ventus W
1.00

finishing

Nojima Stella W+0.00on par
Omiya Ardija Ventus W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nojima Stella W ↓

Omiya Ardija Ventus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nojima Stella W or draw
52%
Nojima Stella W or Omiya Ardija Ventus W
70%
Draw or Omiya Ardija Ventus W
78%

Winning margin

Nojima Stella W wins by 2+
7%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nojima Stella W 1+ goals
53%
Nojima Stella W 2+ goals
17%
Nojima Stella W 3+ goals
4%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W 1+ goals
71%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W 2+ goals
36%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nojima Stella W (draw refunded)
32%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nojima Stella W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Omiya Ardija Ventus W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nojima Stella W attack 0.50 + Omiya Ardija Ventus W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Omiya Ardija Ventus W attack 1.00 + Nojima Stella W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nojima Stella W scores more
22%
level
30%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W scores more
48%

Omiya Ardija Ventus W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Omiya Ardija Ventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nojima Stella W vs Omiya Ardija Ventus W

Nojima Stella W and Omiya Ardija Ventus W drew 0-0 in League #854 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sagamihara Gion Stadium in Sagamihara.