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Noja vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Noja
Noja
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tropezón
Tropezón
9/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo La Caseta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Noja23%
×Draw25%
Tropezón53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noja
1.00
Tropezón
1.65

Tropezón creates 65% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 94 away

creates per match

Noja
0.91
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Noja
1.75
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Noja+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noja ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Noja or draw
47%
Noja or Tropezón
75%
Draw or Tropezón
77%

Winning margin

Noja wins by 2+
8%
Tropezón wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Noja 1+ goals
63%
Noja 2+ goals
26%
Noja 3+ goals
8%
Tropezón 1+ goals
81%
Tropezón 2+ goals
49%
Tropezón 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Noja (draw refunded)
30%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noja at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noja attack 0.91 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Noja defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Noja scores more
23%
level
25%
Tropezón scores more
53%

Tropezón at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Noja 0–2 Tropezón

Tropezón beat Noja 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Campo La Caseta in Noja.