Noja 1–2 Textil Escudo: Result & Stats

Noja

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Textil Escudo

12/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Campo La Caseta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Noja39%

×Draw26%

Textil Escudo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NojaExpected goals in this matchTextil Escudo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.31

Noja

1.41

Textil Escudo

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 56 away

0.91

creates per match

0.88

1.75

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Noja

0.91

Textil Escudo

0.88

allows per match

Noja

1.75

Textil Escudo

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noja+0.00on par

Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noja ↓

Textil Escudo →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Noja or draw

65%

Noja or Textil Escudo

74%

Draw or Textil Escudo

61%

Winning margin

Noja wins by 2+

18%

Textil Escudo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Noja 1+ goals

76%

Noja 2+ goals

41%

Noja 3+ goals

17%

Textil Escudo 1+ goals

73%

Textil Escudo 2+ goals

38%

Textil Escudo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Noja (draw refunded)

53%

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Noja at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Noja attack 0.91 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Noja defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Noja scores more

39%

level

26%

Textil Escudo scores more

35%

Noja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Noja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff