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Noja vs Escobedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Noja
Noja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Escobedo
Escobedo
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo La Caseta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Noja25%
×Draw26%
Escobedo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noja
1.01
Escobedo
1.53

Escobedo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Noja
0.91
Escobedo
1.31

allows per match

Noja
1.75
Escobedo
1.10

finishing

Noja+0.00on par
Escobedo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noja ↓

Escobedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Noja or draw
51%
Noja or Escobedo
74%
Draw or Escobedo
75%

Winning margin

Noja wins by 2+
9%
Escobedo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Noja 1+ goals
64%
Noja 2+ goals
27%
Noja 3+ goals
8%
Escobedo 1+ goals
78%
Escobedo 2+ goals
45%
Escobedo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Noja (draw refunded)
34%
Escobedo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noja at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Escobedo away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noja attack 0.91 + Escobedo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Escobedo attack 1.31 + Noja defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Noja scores more
25%
level
26%
Escobedo scores more
49%

Escobedo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noja vs Escobedo

Noja and Escobedo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Campo La Caseta in Noja.