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Noia vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Noia
Noia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Noia35%
×Draw28%
Rápido Bouzas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noia
1.16
Rápido Bouzas
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 75 away

creates per match

Noia
1.08
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Noia
1.24
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Noia+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noia ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Noia or draw
64%
Noia or Rápido Bouzas
72%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
65%

Winning margin

Noia wins by 2+
15%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Noia 1+ goals
69%
Noia 2+ goals
32%
Noia 3+ goals
11%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
69%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
33%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Noia (draw refunded)
49%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noia at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noia attack 1.08 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Noia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Noia scores more
35%
level
28%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
36%

Rápido Bouzas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noia vs Rápido Bouzas

Noia and Rápido Bouzas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Lázaro in Noia.