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Noia vs Ourense CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Noia
Noia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Noia29%
×Draw27%
Ourense CF44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noia
1.05
Ourense CF
1.35

Ourense CF creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Noia
1.08
Ourense CF
1.47

allows per match

Noia
1.24
Ourense CF
1.02

finishing

Noia+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noia ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Noia or draw
56%
Noia or Ourense CF
73%
Draw or Ourense CF
71%

Winning margin

Noia wins by 2+
11%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Noia 1+ goals
65%
Noia 2+ goals
28%
Noia 3+ goals
9%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
74%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
39%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Noia (draw refunded)
40%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noia at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noia attack 1.08 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Noia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Noia scores more
29%
level
27%
Ourense CF scores more
44%

Ourense CF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noia vs Ourense CF

Ourense CF beat Noia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Lázaro in Noia.