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Noia vs Juvenil Ponteareas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Noia
Noia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Noia47%
×Draw27%
Juvenil Ponteareas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noia
1.39
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.94

Noia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 16 away

creates per match

Noia
1.08
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.63

allows per match

Noia
1.24
Juvenil Ponteareas
1.69

finishing

Noia+0.00on par
Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noia ↓

Juvenil Ponteareas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Noia or draw
75%
Noia or Juvenil Ponteareas
73%
Draw or Juvenil Ponteareas
53%

Winning margin

Noia wins by 2+
23%
Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Noia 1+ goals
75%
Noia 2+ goals
40%
Noia 3+ goals
16%
Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
61%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
24%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Noia (draw refunded)
65%
Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noia at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Juvenil Ponteareas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noia attack 1.08 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.63 + Noia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Noia scores more
47%
level
27%
Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
25%

Noia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Noia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noia vs Juvenil Ponteareas

Noia beat Juvenil Ponteareas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Lázaro in Noia.