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Noia vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Noia
Noia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
10/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Noia33%
×Draw30%
Celta de Vigo III38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noia
1.03
Celta de Vigo III
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 66 away

creates per match

Noia
1.08
Celta de Vigo III
1.00

allows per match

Noia
1.24
Celta de Vigo III
0.98

finishing

Noia+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noia ↓

Celta de Vigo III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Noia or draw
62%
Noia or Celta de Vigo III
70%
Draw or Celta de Vigo III
67%

Winning margin

Noia wins by 2+
13%
Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Noia 1+ goals
64%
Noia 2+ goals
28%
Noia 3+ goals
9%
Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
67%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
31%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Noia (draw refunded)
47%
Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noia at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noia attack 1.08 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Noia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Noia scores more
33%
level
30%
Celta de Vigo III scores more
38%

Celta de Vigo III at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Noia 2–1 Celta de Vigo III

Noia beat Celta de Vigo III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Lázaro in Noia.