Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC vs Wadi Degla — Premier League 2018

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
9/19/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC28%
×Draw30%
Wadi Degla42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
0.88
Wadi Degla
1.17

Wadi Degla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
0.65
Wadi Degla
1.21

allows per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.12
Wadi Degla
1.10

finishing

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par
Wadi Degla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC ↓

Wadi Degla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or draw
58%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or Wadi Degla
70%
Draw or Wadi Degla
72%

Winning margin

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+
9%
Wadi Degla wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals
59%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals
22%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals
6%
Wadi Degla 1+ goals
69%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
33%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)
39%
Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Wadi Degla away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 0.65 + Wadi Degla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Wadi Degla attack 1.21 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more
28%
level
30%
Wadi Degla scores more
42%

Wadi Degla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nogoom El Mostakbal FC vs Wadi Degla

Wadi Degla beat Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1-0 in Premier League on September 19, 2018.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).