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Nogoom El Mostakbal FC vs El Mokawloon — Premier League 2018

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
El Mokawloon
El Mokawloon
8/15/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC31%
×Draw30%
El Mokawloon39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
0.94
El Mokawloon
1.10

El Mokawloon creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
0.65
El Mokawloon
1.08

allows per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.12
El Mokawloon
1.23

finishing

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par
El Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC ↓

El Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or draw
61%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or El Mokawloon
70%
Draw or El Mokawloon
69%

Winning margin

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+
11%
El Mokawloon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals
61%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals
24%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals
7%
El Mokawloon 1+ goals
67%
El Mokawloon 2+ goals
30%
El Mokawloon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)
44%
El Mokawloon (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

El Mokawloon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 0.65 + El Mokawloon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

El Mokawloon attack 1.08 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more
31%
level
30%
El Mokawloon scores more
39%

El Mokawloon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "El Mokawloon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 0 – 2 El Mokawloon

El Mokawloon beat Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2-0 in Premier League on August 15, 2018.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).