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NoFeL Sporting Club vs Team BJMC — Premier League 2019

NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Team BJMC
Team BJMC
2/14/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club39%
×Draw27%
Team BJMC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.29
Team BJMC
1.17

NoFeL Sporting Club creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.83
Team BJMC
0.58

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75
Team BJMC
1.75

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par
Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Team BJMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw
66%
NoFeL Sporting Club or Team BJMC
73%
Draw or Team BJMC
61%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
18%
Team BJMC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
72%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
37%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
14%
Team BJMC 1+ goals
69%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
33%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
54%
Team BJMC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
39%
level
27%
Team BJMC scores more
34%

NoFeL Sporting Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NoFeL Sporting Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NoFeL Sporting Club vs Team BJMC

NoFeL Sporting Club and Team BJMC drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 14, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).