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NoFeL Sporting Club vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Premier League 2019

NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
3/4/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club22%
×Draw24%
Mohammedan Dhaka53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.98
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.66

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 77 away

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.83
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.13

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw
47%
NoFeL Sporting Club or Mohammedan Dhaka
76%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
78%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
8%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
62%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
26%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
8%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
81%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
49%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
30%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.57 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
22%
level
24%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
53%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NoFeL Sporting Club vs Mohammedan Dhaka

NoFeL Sporting Club beat Mohammedan Dhaka 1-0 in Premier League on March 4, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).