NoFeL Sporting Club 2–0 Brothers Union

NoFeL Sporting Club

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Brothers Union

2/23/2019

Premier League · Round 8Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club40%

×Draw25%

Brothers Union35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoFeL Sporting ClubExpected goals in this matchBrothers Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.41

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.51

Brothers Union

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 53 away

0.83

creates per match

1.06

1.75

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club

0.83

Brothers Union

1.06

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club

1.75

Brothers Union

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Brothers Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw

65%

NoFeL Sporting Club or Brothers Union

75%

Draw or Brothers Union

60%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+

19%

Brothers Union wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals

78%

NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals

44%

NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals

19%

Brothers Union 1+ goals

76%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

41%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)

53%

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Brothers Union defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Brothers Union attack 1.06 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more

40%

level

25%

Brothers Union scores more

35%

NoFeL Sporting Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NoFeL Sporting Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff