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NoFeL Sporting Club vs Arambagh — Premier League 2019

NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arambagh
Arambagh
7/8/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club40%
×Draw25%
Arambagh35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.53
Arambagh
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.83
Arambagh
1.06

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75
Arambagh
2.23

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par
Arambagh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Arambagh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw
65%
NoFeL Sporting Club or Arambagh
75%
Draw or Arambagh
60%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
20%
Arambagh wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
78%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
45%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
20%
Arambagh 1+ goals
76%
Arambagh 2+ goals
41%
Arambagh 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
54%
Arambagh (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Arambagh away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Arambagh defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Arambagh attack 1.06 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
40%
level
25%
Arambagh scores more
35%

NoFeL Sporting Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NoFeL Sporting Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NoFeL Sporting Club vs Arambagh

Arambagh beat NoFeL Sporting Club 2-1 in Premier League on July 8, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).