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NoFeL Sporting Club vs Abahani — Premier League 2019

NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Abahani
Abahani
5/9/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club19%
×Draw22%
Abahani60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.00
Abahani
1.96

Abahani creates 96% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.83
Abahani
2.16

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75
Abahani
1.18

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw
40%
NoFeL Sporting Club or Abahani
78%
Draw or Abahani
81%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
7%
Abahani wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
63%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
26%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
8%
Abahani 1+ goals
86%
Abahani 2+ goals
58%
Abahani 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
24%
Abahani (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Abahani away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Abahani defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Abahani attack 2.16 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
19%
level
22%
Abahani scores more
60%

Abahani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NoFeL Sporting Club vs Abahani

Abahani beat NoFeL Sporting Club 2-0 in Premier League on May 9, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).