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Nocerina vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nocerina
Nocerina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
11/16/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio San Francesco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nocerina46%
×Draw26%
Sarrabus Ogliastra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nocerina
1.44
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.05

Nocerina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Nocerina
1.18
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Nocerina
0.94
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Nocerina+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nocerina ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nocerina or draw
72%
Nocerina or Sarrabus Ogliastra
74%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
54%

Winning margin

Nocerina wins by 2+
22%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nocerina 1+ goals
76%
Nocerina 2+ goals
42%
Nocerina 3+ goals
18%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
65%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
28%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nocerina (draw refunded)
63%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nocerina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nocerina attack 1.18 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Nocerina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nocerina scores more
46%
level
26%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
28%

Nocerina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nocerina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nocerina vs Sarrabus Ogliastra

Nocerina beat Sarrabus Ogliastra 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio San Francesco in Nocera Inferiore.