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Nocerina vs Romana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nocerina
Nocerina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Romana
Romana
A. Cali 4'
11/19/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio San Francesco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nocerina34%
×Draw30%
Romana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nocerina
1.06
Romana
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nocerina
1.18
Romana
1.24

allows per match

Nocerina
0.94
Romana
0.94

finishing

Nocerina+0.00on par
Romana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nocerina ↓

Romana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nocerina or draw
64%
Nocerina or Romana
70%
Draw or Romana
66%

Winning margin

Nocerina wins by 2+
13%
Romana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nocerina 1+ goals
65%
Nocerina 2+ goals
29%
Nocerina 3+ goals
9%
Romana 1+ goals
66%
Romana 2+ goals
30%
Romana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nocerina (draw refunded)
49%
Romana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nocerina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Romana away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nocerina attack 1.18 + Romana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Romana attack 1.24 + Nocerina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nocerina scores more
34%
level
30%
Romana scores more
36%

Romana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Cali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nocerina vs Romana

Romana beat Nocerina 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 19, 2023.

Goals: A. Cali (4').

The match was played at Stadio San Francesco in Nocera Inferiore.