Noblejas 1–1 Cazalegas: Result & Stats

Noblejas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cazalegas

12/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Municipal Ángel Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noblejas33%

×Draw28%

Cazalegas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoblejasExpected goals in this matchCazalegas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.27

Noblejas

1.13

Cazalegas

1.27

Cazalegas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.65

creates per match

0.90

1.65

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Noblejas

0.65

Cazalegas

0.90

allows per match

Noblejas

1.65

Cazalegas

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noblejas+0.00on par

Cazalegas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noblejas ↓

Cazalegas →

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Noblejas or draw

60%

Noblejas or Cazalegas

72%

Draw or Cazalegas

67%

Winning margin

Noblejas wins by 2+

13%

Cazalegas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Noblejas 1+ goals

68%

Noblejas 2+ goals

31%

Noblejas 3+ goals

11%

Cazalegas 1+ goals

72%

Cazalegas 2+ goals

36%

Cazalegas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Noblejas (draw refunded)

45%

Cazalegas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Noblejas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Cazalegas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Noblejas attack 0.65 + Cazalegas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cazalegas attack 0.90 + Noblejas defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Noblejas scores more

33%

level

28%

Cazalegas scores more

40%

Cazalegas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cazalegas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff