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Noah II vs Syunik — First League 2019

Noah II
Noah II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Syunik
Syunik
4/22/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Noah II34%
×Draw23%
Syunik42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noah II
1.50
Syunik
1.69

Syunik creates 13% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 57 away

creates per match

Noah II
1.88
Syunik
2.14

allows per match

Noah II
1.24
Syunik
1.11

finishing

Noah II+0.00on par
Syunik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noah II ↓

Syunik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Noah II or draw
58%
Noah II or Syunik
77%
Draw or Syunik
66%

Winning margin

Noah II wins by 2+
16%
Syunik wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Noah II 1+ goals
78%
Noah II 2+ goals
44%
Noah II 3+ goals
19%
Syunik 1+ goals
82%
Syunik 2+ goals
50%
Syunik 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Noah II (draw refunded)
45%
Syunik (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noah II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

Syunik away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noah II attack 1.88 + Syunik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Syunik attack 2.14 + Noah II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Noah II scores more
34%
level
23%
Syunik scores more
42%

Syunik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Noah II 2 – 4 Syunik

Syunik beat Noah II 4-2 in First League on April 22, 2026.