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Noah II vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Noah II
Noah II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shirak II
Shirak II
5/19/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Noah II59%
×Draw20%
Shirak II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noah II
2.16
Shirak II
1.21

Noah II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 84 away

creates per match

Noah II
1.88
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Noah II
1.24
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Noah II+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noah II ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Noah II or draw
79%
Noah II or Shirak II
80%
Draw or Shirak II
41%

Winning margin

Noah II wins by 2+
36%
Shirak II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Noah II 1+ goals
88%
Noah II 2+ goals
63%
Noah II 3+ goals
36%
Shirak II 1+ goals
70%
Shirak II 2+ goals
34%
Shirak II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Noah II (draw refunded)
74%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noah II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noah II attack 1.88 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.16

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Noah II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Noah II scores more
59%
level
20%
Shirak II scores more
21%

Noah II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Noah II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Noah II 0–2 Shirak II

Shirak II beat Noah II 2-0 in First League on May 19, 2025.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.