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Noah II vs Nikarm — First League 2019

Noah II
Noah II
FT
8 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nikarm
Nikarm
4/30/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Noah II78%
×Draw13%
Nikarm9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noah II
3.07
Nikarm
0.98

Noah II creates 213% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

creates per match

Noah II
1.88
Nikarm
0.73

allows per match

Noah II
1.24
Nikarm
4.27

finishing

Noah II+0.00on par
Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noah II ↓

Nikarm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Noah II or draw
91%
Noah II or Nikarm
87%
Draw or Nikarm
22%

Winning margin

Noah II wins by 2+
59%
Nikarm wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Noah II 1+ goals
95%
Noah II 2+ goals
80%
Noah II 3+ goals
58%
Nikarm 1+ goals
62%
Nikarm 2+ goals
26%
Nikarm 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Noah II (draw refunded)
90%
Nikarm (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noah II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noah II attack 1.88 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.07

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Noah II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Noah II scores more
78%
level
13%
Nikarm scores more
9%

Noah II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Noah II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noah II vs Nikarm

Noah II beat Nikarm 8-0 in First League on April 30, 2024.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.