Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nkwazi vs Mufulira Wanderers — Super League 2019

Nkwazi
Nkwazi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
3/15/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nkwazi43%
×Draw33%
Mufulira Wanderers24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkwazi
1.02
Mufulira Wanderers
0.67

Nkwazi creates 52% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nkwazi
0.85
Mufulira Wanderers
0.52

allows per match

Nkwazi
0.82
Mufulira Wanderers
1.20

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par
Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw
76%
Nkwazi or Mufulira Wanderers
67%
Draw or Mufulira Wanderers
57%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+
17%
Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals
64%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
27%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
8%
Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
49%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
15%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)
65%
Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nkwazi scores more
43%
level
33%
Mufulira Wanderers scores more
24%

Nkwazi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nkwazi 1–1 Mufulira Wanderers

Nkwazi and Mufulira Wanderers drew 1-1 in Super League on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.