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Nkwazi vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

Nkwazi
Nkwazi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
4/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Nkwazi37%
×Draw32%
Forest Rangers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkwazi
1.01
Forest Rangers
0.91

Nkwazi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

Nkwazi
0.85
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

Nkwazi
0.82
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw
68%
Nkwazi or Forest Rangers
68%
Draw or Forest Rangers
63%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+
14%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals
64%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
27%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
8%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
60%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
23%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)
54%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nkwazi scores more
37%
level
32%
Forest Rangers scores more
32%

Nkwazi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nkwazi vs Forest Rangers

Nkwazi and Forest Rangers drew 1-1 in Super League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.