Nkana 0–1 ZESCO United: Result & Stats

Nkana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ZESCO United

9/1/2024

Super League · Round 3Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkana37%

×Draw31%

ZESCO United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NkanaExpected goals in this matchZESCO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.94

Nkana

1.05

ZESCO United

0.94

Nkana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Nkana

1.25

ZESCO United

1.00

allows per match

Nkana

0.88

ZESCO United

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nkana+0.00on par

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkana ↓

ZESCO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nkana or draw

68%

Nkana or ZESCO United

69%

Draw or ZESCO United

63%

Winning margin

Nkana wins by 2+

15%

ZESCO United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nkana 1+ goals

65%

Nkana 2+ goals

28%

Nkana 3+ goals

9%

ZESCO United 1+ goals

61%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

24%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nkana (draw refunded)

54%

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 110 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkana attack 1.25 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + Nkana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nkana scores more

37%

level

31%

ZESCO United scores more

32%

Nkana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff