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Nkana vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Nkana
Nkana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
11/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkana38%
×Draw31%
Red Arrows31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkana
1.07
Red Arrows
0.94

Nkana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Nkana
1.25
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Nkana
0.88
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Nkana+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkana ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nkana or draw
69%
Nkana or Red Arrows
69%
Draw or Red Arrows
62%

Winning margin

Nkana wins by 2+
15%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nkana 1+ goals
66%
Nkana 2+ goals
29%
Nkana 3+ goals
9%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
61%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
24%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nkana (draw refunded)
55%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 110 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkana attack 1.25 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Nkana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nkana scores more
38%
level
31%
Red Arrows scores more
31%

Nkana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nkana vs Red Arrows

Nkana beat Red Arrows 3-1 in Super League on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.