Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nkana vs NAPSA Stars — Super League 2019

Nkana
Nkana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
11/30/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Nkana45%
×Draw30%
NAPSA Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkana
1.17
NAPSA Stars
0.79

Nkana creates 48% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

Nkana
1.25
NAPSA Stars
0.71

allows per match

Nkana
0.88
NAPSA Stars
1.08

finishing

Nkana+0.00on par
NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkana ↓

NAPSA Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nkana or draw
75%
Nkana or NAPSA Stars
70%
Draw or NAPSA Stars
55%

Winning margin

Nkana wins by 2+
19%
NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nkana 1+ goals
69%
Nkana 2+ goals
33%
Nkana 3+ goals
11%
NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
55%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
19%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nkana (draw refunded)
64%
NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 110 matches

NAPSA Stars away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkana attack 1.25 + NAPSA Stars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

NAPSA Stars attack 0.71 + Nkana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nkana scores more
45%
level
30%
NAPSA Stars scores more
25%

Nkana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nkana 1–0 NAPSA Stars

Nkana beat NAPSA Stars 1-0 in Super League on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.