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Nkana vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019

Nkana
Nkana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
2/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkana40%
×Draw31%
Kabwe Warriors30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkana
1.08
Kabwe Warriors
0.89

Nkana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Nkana
1.25
Kabwe Warriors
0.90

allows per match

Nkana
0.88
Kabwe Warriors
0.92

finishing

Nkana+0.00on par
Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkana ↓

Kabwe Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nkana or draw
70%
Nkana or Kabwe Warriors
69%
Draw or Kabwe Warriors
60%

Winning margin

Nkana wins by 2+
16%
Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nkana 1+ goals
66%
Nkana 2+ goals
29%
Nkana 3+ goals
10%
Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
59%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
22%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nkana (draw refunded)
57%
Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 110 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkana attack 1.25 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Nkana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nkana scores more
40%
level
31%
Kabwe Warriors scores more
30%

Nkana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nkana 0–1 Kabwe Warriors

Kabwe Warriors beat Nkana 1-0 in Super League on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.