Nkana 1–0 Green Eagles: Result & Stats

Nkana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Green Eagles

2/16/2025

Super League · Round 24Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkana40%

×Draw31%

Green Eagles29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NkanaExpected goals in this matchGreen Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.87

Nkana

1.09

Green Eagles

0.87

Nkana creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

1.25

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Nkana

1.25

Green Eagles

0.86

allows per match

Nkana

0.88

Green Eagles

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nkana+0.00on par

Green Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkana ↓

Green Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nkana or draw

71%

Nkana or Green Eagles

69%

Draw or Green Eagles

60%

Winning margin

Nkana wins by 2+

16%

Green Eagles wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nkana 1+ goals

66%

Nkana 2+ goals

30%

Nkana 3+ goals

10%

Green Eagles 1+ goals

58%

Green Eagles 2+ goals

22%

Green Eagles 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nkana (draw refunded)

58%

Green Eagles (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 110 matches

Green Eagles away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkana attack 1.25 + Green Eagles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Green Eagles attack 0.86 + Nkana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nkana scores more

40%

level

31%

Green Eagles scores more

29%

Nkana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff