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Nkana vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

Nkana
Nkana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
2/24/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Nkana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Nkana42%
×Draw29%
Forest Rangers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkana
1.21
Forest Rangers
0.94

Nkana creates 29% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

Nkana
1.25
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

Nkana
0.88
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

Nkana+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkana ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nkana or draw
71%
Nkana or Forest Rangers
71%
Draw or Forest Rangers
58%

Winning margin

Nkana wins by 2+
18%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nkana 1+ goals
70%
Nkana 2+ goals
34%
Nkana 3+ goals
12%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
61%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
24%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nkana (draw refunded)
60%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 110 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkana attack 1.25 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + Nkana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nkana scores more
42%
level
29%
Forest Rangers scores more
29%

Nkana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nkana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nkana vs Forest Rangers

Nkana and Forest Rangers drew 1-1 in Super League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nkana Stadium in Kitwe.