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NK Zadar vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

NK Zadar
NK Zadar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sesvete
Sesvete
3/16/2019First NLFirst NL · Round 16Stadion Stanovi (Zadar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NK Zadar49%
×Draw26%
Sesvete25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Zadar
1.50
Sesvete
0.98

NK Zadar creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 103 away

creates per match

NK Zadar
1.77
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

NK Zadar
0.85
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw
75%
NK Zadar or Sesvete
74%
Draw or Sesvete
51%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+
25%
Sesvete wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals
78%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
44%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
19%
Sesvete 1+ goals
62%
Sesvete 2+ goals
26%
Sesvete 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)
67%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 1.77 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sesvete attack 1.11 + NK Zadar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Zadar scores more
49%
level
26%
Sesvete scores more
25%

NK Zadar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: NK Zadar 2–0 Sesvete

NK Zadar beat Sesvete 2-0 in First NL on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi (Zadar).