NK Zadar 3–0 NK Varazdin: Result & Stats | First NL

NK Zadar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NK Varazdin

A. Repić 77', 70'

D. Župan 2' (pen)

4/27/2019

First NL · Round 22Stadion Stanovi (Zadar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NK Zadar48%

×Draw26%

NK Varazdin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchNK Varazdin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.01

NK Zadar

1.48

NK Varazdin

1.01

NK Zadar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

1.77

creates per match

1.18

0.85

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

NK Zadar

1.77

NK Varazdin

1.18

allows per match

NK Zadar

0.85

NK Varazdin

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

NK Varazdin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

74%

NK Zadar or NK Varazdin

74%

Draw or NK Varazdin

52%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

24%

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

77%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

43%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

19%

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

64%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

27%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

65%

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 1.77 + NK Varazdin defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

NK Varazdin attack 1.18 + NK Zadar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

NK Zadar scores more

48%

level

26%

NK Varazdin scores more

26%

NK Zadar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. ŽupanPenalty

35'

K. Sambolec← D. Perković

59'

M. Kolarić← M. Zebić

67'

N. Llanos← L. Knežević

70'

74'

75'

77'

78'

V. Blažević← D. Župan

NK

3

▼

Zebić

25

Fućak

1

Nevistić

5

▼

24

16

17

2

▼

4

7

11

22

1

15

7

6

3

10

⚽

▼

Župan

4

Muić

19

▼

Knežević

16

▼

Begić

2

⚽2

Repić

Manager: M. Karoglan

67'▲N. Llanos←▼L. Knežević

75'▲K. Jurić←▼Z. Begić

78'▲V. Blažević←▼D. Župan

NK Zadar substitutes

11Llanos20Jurić99Blažević5Iveljić28Katuša12Pinčić21Zdrilić

Manager: B. Karačić

35'▲K. Sambolec←▼D. Perković

59'▲M. Kolarić←▼M. Zebić

74'▲K. Težak←▼M. Brlečić

NK Varazdin substitutes

15Sambolec18Kolarić14Težak6Čelić9Črnko13Vuk21Gavranović

First NL: NK Zadar 3–0 NK Varazdin

NK Zadar beat NK Varazdin 3-0 in First NL on April 27, 2019.

Goals: D. Župan (2' pen), A. Repić (70', 77').

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi (Zadar).

NK Zadar vs NK Varazdin — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: NK Zadar 3–0 NK Varazdin