NK Zadar 2–1 NK Osijek II: Result & Stats

NK Zadar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NK Osijek II

K. Jurić 57' (pen)

D. Župan 8'

N. Dago 36'

5/11/2019

First NL · Round 24Stadion Stanovi (Zadar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NK Zadar53%

×Draw25%

NK Osijek II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.94

NK Zadar

1.59

NK Osijek II

0.94

NK Zadar creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

1.77

creates per match

1.02

0.85

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

NK Zadar

1.77

NK Osijek II

1.02

allows per match

NK Zadar

0.85

NK Osijek II

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

NK Osijek II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

78%

NK Zadar or NK Osijek II

75%

Draw or NK Osijek II

47%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

28%

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

80%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

47%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

21%

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

61%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

24%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

70%

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 1.77 + NK Osijek II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

NK Osijek II attack 1.02 + NK Zadar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NK Zadar scores more

53%

level

25%

NK Osijek II scores more

22%

NK Zadar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Župan

32'

S. Radeljić← Da Silva Ignacio

36'

N. Dago

57'

K. JurićPenalty

64'

72'

76'

83'

90+2'

L. Zdrilić← L. Knežević

NK

18

Gačić

5

▼

1

2

26

7

10

19

20

9

▼

Kolega

17

⚽

▼

1

15

7

3

5

10

⚽

▼

Župan

4

Muić

20

⚽

▼

Jurić

19

▼

Knežević

16

Begić

2

Repić

Manager: M. Karoglan

76'▲E. Kulaš←▼K. Jurić

83'▲J. Katuša←▼D. Župan

90+2'▲L. Zdrilić←▼L. Knežević

NK Zadar substitutes

22Kulaš28Katuša21Zdrilić6Tokić26Jurjević17Surać12Pinčić

Manager: R. Grnja

32'▲S. Radeljić←▼Da Silva Ignacio

64'▲I. Durdov←▼T. Kolega

72'▲T. Bliznac←▼N. Dago

NK Osijek II substitutes

6Radeljić11Durdov3Bliznac21Daku13Župić16Čakarić14Jalinous