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NK Zadar vs Hrvace — Third NL - Jug 2019

NK Zadar
NK Zadar
CANC
00:00
Hrvace
Hrvace
3/28/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 21Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Zadar55%
×Draw23%
Hrvace22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Zadar
1.85
Hrvace
1.09

NK Zadar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

creates per match

NK Zadar
2.11
Hrvace
1.07

allows per match

NK Zadar
1.11
Hrvace
1.60

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw
78%
NK Zadar or Hrvace
77%
Draw or Hrvace
45%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+
31%
Hrvace wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals
84%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
55%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
28%
Hrvace 1+ goals
66%
Hrvace 2+ goals
30%
Hrvace 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)
71%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 2.11 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hrvace attack 1.07 + NK Zadar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NK Zadar scores more
55%
level
23%
Hrvace scores more
22%

NK Zadar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NK Zadar host Hrvace

March 28, 2020: NK Zadar take on Hrvace in Third NL - Jug. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

NK Zadar host Hrvace at Stadion Stanovi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.