Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NK Varazdin vs Rudes — HNL 2018

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rudes
Rudes
2/9/2024HNLHNL · Round 22Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

NK Varazdin56%
×Draw24%
Rudes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Varazdin
1.73
Rudes
0.93

NK Varazdin creates 86% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 36 away

creates per match

NK Varazdin
1.09
Rudes
0.61

allows per match

NK Varazdin
1.24
Rudes
2.36

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par
Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

Rudes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw
80%
NK Varazdin or Rudes
76%
Draw or Rudes
44%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+
31%
Rudes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals
82%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
52%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
25%
Rudes 1+ goals
61%
Rudes 2+ goals
24%
Rudes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
74%
Rudes (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

Rudes away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + Rudes defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rudes attack 0.61 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NK Varazdin scores more
56%
level
24%
Rudes scores more
20%

NK Varazdin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Varazdin vs Rudes

NK Varazdin beat Rudes 1-0 in HNL on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in Varaždin.