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NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek
NK Osijek
8/17/2025HNLHNL · Round 3Gradski stadion Varazdin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin34%
×Draw27%
NK Osijek38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Varazdin
1.19
NK Osijek
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Varazdin
1.09
NK Osijek
1.29

allows per match

NK Varazdin
1.24
NK Osijek
1.29

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par
NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

NK Osijek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw
62%
NK Varazdin or NK Osijek
73%
Draw or NK Osijek
66%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+
14%
NK Osijek wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals
70%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
33%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
12%
NK Osijek 1+ goals
72%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
36%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
47%
NK Osijek (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + NK Osijek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

NK Osijek attack 1.29 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NK Varazdin scores more
34%
level
27%
NK Osijek scores more
38%

NK Osijek at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Varazdin 0–0 NK Osijek

NK Varazdin and NK Osijek drew 0-0 in HNL on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Varazdin in Varaždin.