NK Varazdin 0–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Varazdin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Gorica

4/4/2025

HNL · Round 28Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin39%

×Draw27%

HNK Gorica34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.16

NK Varazdin

1.26

HNK Gorica

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

1.09

creates per match

1.08

1.24

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.09

HNK Gorica

1.08

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.24

HNK Gorica

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

66%

NK Varazdin or HNK Gorica

73%

Draw or HNK Gorica

61%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

17%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

72%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

36%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

13%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

69%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

32%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

53%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

39%

level

27%

HNK Gorica scores more

34%

NK Varazdin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff