NK Varazdin 2–4 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Varazdin

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

HNK Gorica

D. Drožđek 90'

L. Belcar 42'

A. Jurič 80'

J. Pršir 78'

J. Mitrović 27'

G. Rukavina 25'

3/30/2024

HNL · Round 28Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

NK Varazdin48%

×Draw26%

HNK Gorica26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.04

NK Varazdin

1.49

HNK Gorica

1.04

NK Varazdin creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

1.35

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.35

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.05

HNK Gorica

1.63

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

NK Varazdin-0.13scores less

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

74%

NK Varazdin or HNK Gorica

74%

Draw or HNK Gorica

52%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

24%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

77%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

44%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

19%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

65%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

28%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

64%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 18 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.35 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + NK Varazdin defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

48%

level

26%

HNK Gorica scores more

26%

NK Varazdin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Pršir

HNK Gorica · M

9.0

Match Events

13'

Igor Postonjski

21'

A. Lazarov← F. Mrzljak

25'

27'

35'

42'

46'

L. Škaričić← M. Vukčević

52'

A. Jurič← T. Matavž

53'

V. Majstorović← J. Mitrović

56'

D. Drožđek← K. Lusavec

71'

N. Vujnović← G. Rukavina

71'

K. Krizmanić← A. Munksgaard

74'

75'

78'

80'

82'

N. Domjanić← M. Dabro

83'

T. Levanić← I. Nekić

90+1'

Ante Matej Jurić

90'

D. Drožđek↳ T. Gudelj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKHNK

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots8

9Corners2

11Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target5

4Off Target1

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

461Total Passes304

379Accurate Passes214

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat NK Varazdin 4-2 in HNL on March 30, 2024.

Goals: G. Rukavina (25'), J. Mitrović (27'), L. Belcar (42'), J. Pršir (78'), A. Jurič (80'), D. Drožđek (90').

NK Varazdin controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in Varaždin.

NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica