NK Varazdin 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Varazdin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb

11/5/2023

HNL · Round 14Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin24%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.52

NK Varazdin

0.95

Dinamo Zagreb

1.52

Dinamo Zagreb creates 60% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

1.09

creates per match

1.81

1.24

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.09

Dinamo Zagreb

1.81

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.24

Dinamo Zagreb

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

50%

NK Varazdin or Dinamo Zagreb

74%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb

76%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

8%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

61%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

25%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

7%

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

32%

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.81 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.81 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

24%

level

26%

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

50%

Dinamo Zagreb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff