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Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin — HNL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
5/25/2025HNLHNL · Round 36Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb62%
×Draw22%
NK Varazdin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb
1.85
NK Varazdin
0.79

Dinamo Zagreb creates 134% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 108 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb
2.35
NK Varazdin
0.89

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb
0.70
NK Varazdin
1.34

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par
NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

NK Varazdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw
85%
Dinamo Zagreb or NK Varazdin
78%
Draw or NK Varazdin
38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
37%
NK Varazdin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
55%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
28%
NK Varazdin 1+ goals
55%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
19%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
80%
NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.85

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more
62%
level
22%
NK Varazdin scores more
15%

Dinamo Zagreb at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NK Varazdin

Dinamo Zagreb beat NK Varazdin 1-0 in HNL on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.