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NK Slaven Belupo vs Vukovar — HNL 2018

NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vukovar
Vukovar
I. Nestorovski 79', 25'
A. Jagusic 71', 19'
I. Covic 65' (OG)
11/21/2025HNLHNL · Round 14Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo50%
×Draw25%
Vukovar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Slaven Belupo
1.63
Vukovar
1.10

NK Slaven Belupo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.41
Vukovar
0.82

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.38
Vukovar
1.85

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.38scores more
Vukovar-0.07on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

Vukovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw
74%
NK Slaven Belupo or Vukovar
75%
Draw or Vukovar
50%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
26%
Vukovar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
80%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
48%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
22%
Vukovar 1+ goals
67%
Vukovar 2+ goals
30%
Vukovar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
66%
Vukovar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

Vukovar away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.85 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.41 + Vukovar defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vukovar attack 0.82 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more
50%
level
25%
Vukovar scores more
26%

NK Slaven Belupo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. JagusicNK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo · M
9.9

Match Events

19'
A. Jagusic
25'
I. Nestorovski↳ J. Mitrovic
46'
K. Cabrajic← S. Koeberle
53'
Michael Agbekpornu
53'
Robin GonzálezPenalty confirmed
58'
A. Liber← M. Agbekpornu
60'
Robin GonzálezGoal cancelled
65'
I. CovicOwn goal
67'
Ivan Čović
70'
K. Simmonds← L. Banovec
71'
A. Jagusic
78'
Robin González
79'
I. Nestorovski↳ A. Suto
82'
G. Sivalec← J. Mitrovic
85'
J. Biljan← D. M. Mejia Moscoso
85'
M. Pilj← E. Shabani
86'
D. Mulac← K. Pavicic
89'
Jakov Biljan
90+1'
Alen Jurilj
90+2'
M. Barac← A. Suto
90+2'
L. Bosnjak← A. Jagusic
90+2'
E. Qestaj← I. Nestorovski

Possession

61%NK

Shots

13NK

Pass accuracy

53%NK

Statistics

NKVukovar
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots10
1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.61
0Corners3
7Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots10
6On Target3
5Off Target5
2Blocked2
6Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
403Total Passes248
286Accurate Passes159
71%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Match Recap: NK Slaven Belupo vs Vukovar

NK Slaven Belupo beat Vukovar 4-1 in HNL on November 21, 2025.

Goals: A. Jagusic (19', 71'), I. Nestorovski (25', 79'), I. Covic (65' o.g.).

NK Slaven Belupo controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas in Koprivnica.