NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 SV Kapfenberg: Result & Stats

NK Slaven Belupo

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SV Kapfenberg

1/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Stadion Mutila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo53%

×Draw21%

SV Kapfenberg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchSV Kapfenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.44

NK Slaven Belupo

2.13

SV Kapfenberg

1.44

NK Slaven Belupo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.33

creates per match

1.27

1.60

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

2.33

SV Kapfenberg

1.27

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.60

SV Kapfenberg

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

SV Kapfenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

SV Kapfenberg →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

74%

NK Slaven Belupo or SV Kapfenberg

79%

Draw or SV Kapfenberg

47%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

32%

SV Kapfenberg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

88%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

63%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

35%

SV Kapfenberg 1+ goals

76%

SV Kapfenberg 2+ goals

42%

SV Kapfenberg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

67%

SV Kapfenberg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

SV Kapfenberg away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 2.33 + SV Kapfenberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.13

SV Kapfenberg attack 1.27 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

53%

level

21%

SV Kapfenberg scores more

26%

NK Slaven Belupo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff